How to Set Quarterly Retention Goals and Stay On Track

Yesterday we took Max to his kindergarten open house.

He was really pumped about it.

He met his new teacher, and we got the full school tour.

As we walked down the hallway to the gym, we passed the science room.

And suddenly I was back in middle school, staring down at a frog on a tray.

It’s me and my lab partner Mcleish We’re carefully disceting the frog and identifying the parts.

And then out of nowhere, Mcleish screams, 

“SPLEEEEEEENNNNN!”

He slams his scalpel down and some nasty, green goop splatters all over our glasses.

We look at each other and loose it laughing.

(Our biology teacher was NOT amused).

That was one of my favorite science class memories.

But the other thing I loved about science was creating a hypothesis.

“If I do X, I think Y will happen.”

You run the experiment.

You see what happens.

Then you adjust.

For most of my agency career, my approach to data was… let’s just say reactive.

Every week I’d pull the numbers.

If it was a good week? Celebrate.

If it was a bad week? Panic, scramble for answers, maybe suggest we run a promotion to boost sales.

There wasn’t much of a plan.

The “strategy” was basically: let’s try to beat last quarter or last year.

Yeah, more revenue is always the goal.

But it wasn’t very strategic.

And it kept me constantly reacting instead of steering.

Over the past year, I’ve made a big shift.

I’ve put a real focus on reporting and planning, not just pulling numbers to see if we’re up or down.

I learned this from a client whose new Head of Marketing introduced me to their Big Three Methodology.

It completely changed how I approach goals and reporting.

It makes everything crystal clear on what we’re trying to achieve and how we’re going to do it.

I’ve also found it carries over into weekly and daily tasks.

Let’s dive into it.

The Big Three Quarterly KPI Methodology

1. Set your Big 3 goals for the quarter

Pick the three KPIs that matter most right now, or the ones you believe will have the biggest impact on your retention marketing.

Examples:

• Email campaign revenue
  

• Returning customer revenue
  

• Number of active subscriptions
  

2. Look at your baseline

You need to know where you are to know where you’re going.

Pull your historical data.

Look at the previous quarter, the quarter before that, and the same quarter last year.

Figure out what happens if you keep doing exactly what you’re doing right now.

That’s your baseline.

3. Create your hypothesis and goal

This is where you get strategic.

A hypothesis is simply: “If we do X, I think we can get Y.”

The trick is reverse engineering how you plan to achieve the goal.

That process becomes your action plan.

Example:

“If we increase campaign sends from 3 times per week to 5 times per week, we think we can grow campaign revenue by 15%.”

Goal: $115k for the quarter.

4. Set your pacing and leading indicator

This is the piece that keeps you from drifting.

Quarterly goals are fine, but you can’t wait until the end of the quarter to find out if you’re off track.

Example:

Quarterly goal: $115k from campaigns

• Weekly pacing: $115k ÷ 13 weeks ≈ $8,850/week
  

• Leading indicator: Send 5 campaigns/week

If you’re consistently hitting your leading indicator (5 campaigns/week), you’re executing your part of the plan.

If pacing falls behind on revenue, you can make adjustments mid-quarter — not after it’s too late.

 This way you have:

• The lagging indicators (quarterly goals)
  

• The leading indicators (weekly inputs you control)
  

• A pacing check to make sure you’re on course

My favorite part about this methodology is that it keeps you from reacting blindly. 

You’ve got your lagging goals, your leading actions, and your pacing checks to steer the quarter.

It’s not too late to tighten things up for Q3.

But Q4 is just eight weeks away. If you’re not planning now, you’ll be scrambling when it hits.

If you need help getting your Black Friday goals and action plan in place, shoot me message and we can talk now before it’s too late.

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